Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains 'medium'. The lack of prediction today prevents confidence upgrade, but the zero-input scenario also prevents a downgrade. The model is waiting for the next precipitation event to validate the recent coefficient increases applied on May 30.
The prediction model failed to generate output for today due to zero rainfall inputs, despite a minor 0.51 ft gauge rise driven by saturated antecedent conditions and residual flow.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.06 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.51 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today's event was characterized by a complete lack of new precipitation inputs (0.00" in both bands and at the gauge), resulting in the predictor returning 'None' for the peak forecast. Consequently, this event is classified as 'no_prediction' because the model did not produce a numeric estimate to grade against the observed peak of 3.06 ft.
Although the model did not predict the rise, the hydrograph shows a sharp, short-duration rise (0.2 hours) that peaked early in the day (00:15) and then receded. This behavior in saturated conditions (7-day avg 4.976") suggests the watershed was still draining residual moisture from previous events (May 29-30) rather than responding to new rainfall. The sharp spike is atypical for general saturation drainage, potentially indicating localized baseflow fluctuations or minor unreported inputs, but given the zero QPE, the model's silence is technically consistent with its input-driven nature.
No calibration adjustments are recommended. The previous false negatives on May 29 and 30 have already triggered significant coefficient increases (+10-15% for Band 1, +10% for Band 2). With no rainfall to test the runoff response, there is no signal to justify further tuning. The system remains in a saturated state, and future calibration will depend on the next wet event.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains 'medium'. The lack of prediction today prevents confidence upgrade, but the zero-input scenario also prevents a downgrade. The model is waiting for the next precipitation event to validate the recent coefficient increases applied on May 30.