Classification: correct Confidence: This correct prediction following recent calibration adjustments demonstrates improving model reliability and suggests coefficients are converging toward optimal values
The model accurately predicted both the peak magnitude (2.19 ft vs 2.20 ft actual) and captured the rainfall-driven rise, with only minor timing differences.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.19 ft | 2.2 ft | -0.01 ft |
| Total rise | — | 1.02 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
This event represents excellent model performance with a peak error of only -0.5% (-0.01 ft). The model predicted 2.19 ft while the actual peak reached 2.20 ft, demonstrating strong calibration accuracy. The rainfall distribution showed Band 1 receiving 1.32" and Band 2 receiving 1.48", with the heaviest burst occurring around hour 12 (0.45" and 0.58" respectively). The timing difference of 2.2 hours (predicted peak at 04:39 vs actual at 21:30) suggests the model may be slightly overestimating lag times, but this is within acceptable bounds for a correct classification. The very broad hydrograph shape indicates both bands contributed meaningfully to the sustained rise, which aligns with the relatively balanced rainfall distribution. The WET antecedent conditions (1.72" in 7 days) were appropriately factored with the 1.5x multiplier. This successful prediction following recent partial classifications suggests the previous coefficient adjustments from May 10th (+8% Band 1, +12% Band 2) have improved model accuracy.
No changes made.
This correct prediction following recent calibration adjustments demonstrates improving model reliability and suggests coefficients are converging toward optimal values