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Richland Creek — Daily Analysis: 2026-05-11

Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains low for both bands as this non-rainfall event provides no calibration value; need more substantial rainfall events to improve coefficient reliability

Event Summary

The gauge showed a minor 0.66 ft rise with minimal rainfall (0.04" Band 1, 0.01" Band 2) and zero gauge precipitation, indicating either measurement error or non-rainfall hydrologic processes.

Prediction vs Actual

Metric Predicted Actual Error
Peak height N/A 2.87 ft N/A
Total rise 0.66 ft

Band Contributions

Band Zone Precip Predicted Rise Intensity Moisture

Analysis

This event presents a puzzling scenario where the gauge recorded a 0.66 ft rise from 2.21 ft to 2.87 ft, but the gauge precipitation sensor recorded zero rainfall and QPE data shows only trace amounts (0.04" in Band 1, 0.01" in Band 2). The rise occurred at the beginning of the day with zero duration, suggesting it may be a data artifact or represent non-rainfall processes like groundwater discharge or upstream releases. The discrepancy between the gauge rise and minimal precipitation makes this unsuitable for calibration purposes. Given that the gauge precipitation sensor provides ground truth and recorded zero rainfall, while QPE shows only trace amounts, this event likely represents measurement error or non-meteorological hydrologic processes rather than a rainfall-runoff event that should inform our calibration coefficients.

Coefficient Adjustments

No changes made.

Notes

Model confidence remains low for both bands as this non-rainfall event provides no calibration value; need more substantial rainfall events to improve coefficient reliability

← 2026-05-10  |  2026-05-18 →