Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-05-19

Forecasts archived: 7
Settled (expiry passed): 7

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 12.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 23.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 21.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 18.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)