Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Confidence remains 'low' as the model failed to generate a prediction for this event, breaking the streak of recent correct forecasts. The system needs to be tuned to recognize that even trace rainfall can produce significant rises in saturated conditions.
No physics prediction was generated for today's event, and no empirical forecast headline was issued, despite a 106 CFS rise driven by minimal rainfall (0.043") under wet antecedent conditions.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | N/A | 242 CFS | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 106.0 CFS | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The classification is 'no_prediction' because neither the physics model nor the empirical model produced a forecast for today's event. The physics model failed to trigger, which is unusual given the 4-5 consecutive days of correct predictions prior to this event.
The hydrological data shows a significant disconnect between rainfall input and stream response. A mere 0.043" of rain resulted in a 106 CFS rise, peaking at 242 CFS. This indicates extremely high basin sensitivity, likely due to the 'WET' antecedent moisture condition (2.587" in 7 days). The response coefficient effectively needs to be much higher in these wet conditions to account for the rapid runoff from small precipitation inputs.
Since no prediction was generated, there is no magnitude or timing error to calculate for the physics model. Consequently, no calibration adjustments can be made based on prediction error. The empirical model also remained silent. While the event was small in absolute terms relative to the gauge's high thresholds (2000 CFS), the lack of any output from either system suggests a gap in the prediction logic for low-volume, high-sensitivity events.
No changes made.