Classification: correct Confidence: The model has now seen 3 consecutive 'correct' classifications (including today). We are approaching the threshold (3 events) for upgrading confidence from 'low' to 'medium'. The physics model is performing robustly for low-to-moderate flow events in wet conditions.
The physics model accurately predicted a small 44.9 CFS rise to a peak of 75.7 CFS following 0.89" of rainfall in wet antecedent conditions, with a peak error of only -1.6%.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 74 CFS | 76 CFS | -1 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 44.9 CFS | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The physics prediction was highly accurate for the magnitude of the peak, predicting 74.5 CFS against an actual peak of 75.7 CFS. This 1.6% error is well within the ±15-20% tolerance for a 'correct' classification. The model correctly accounted for the WET antecedent moisture (multiplier 1.5) and the scattered rainfall intensity. The timing error of 1.1 hours is minor given the rapid response nature of the steep Boxley basin and the scattered nature of the rainfall, which can cause slight variations in hydrograph shape and peak timing without affecting the overall volume-response accuracy. No empirical forecast was issued, which is appropriate given that the peak (75.7 CFS) did not reach the low threshold (500 CFS) for significant whitewater action, meaning there was no notable 'event' headline to generate.
No changes made.