Empirical Forecasts — Cossatot River — 2026-05-19

Forecasts archived: 11
Settled (expiry passed): 11

Cossatot River

03:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 8.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 04:15 UTC)

02:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 10.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 04:15 UTC)

01:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 12.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 04:15 UTC)

00:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 22.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 04:15 UTC)

23:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 28.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 36.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 34.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 31.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 29.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 19.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)