Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE (per-gauge facts, all timestamps CDT):

Gauge	(a) First	(b) Max	(c) Last	(d) Intraday low	(e) Low→peak rise
Boxley (ht)	3.22 @00:00	3.22 @00:00	2.90 @23:30	2.87 @23:15	+0.03 ft (2.87→2.90) in 15 min — noise, zero QPE
Ponca (cfs)	442 @00:00	442 @00:00	284 @23:30	284 @23:15	none (monotonic recession)
Pruitt (ht)	5.61 @00:00	5.61 @00:00	4.95 @23:30	4.94 @23:00	+0.01 ft jitter — noise
Pruitt (cfs)	755 @00:00	755 @00:00	507 @23:30	503 @23:00	+4 cfs jitter — noise
St. Joe (ht)	6.67 @00:00	6.67 @00:00	5.72 @22:45	5.72 @22:45	none (monotonic recession)
St. Joe (cfs)	2000 @00:00	2000 @00:00	1270 @22:45	1270 @22:45	none
Harriet (ht)	6.39 @00:00	6.39 @00:00	5.56 @23:45	5.56 @23:45	none (monotonic recession)
Harriet (cfs)	2540 @00:00	2540 @00:00	1650 @23:45	1650 @23:45	none
Richland (ht)	1.45 @00:00	1.45 @00:00	1.32 @23:00	1.32 @22:15	+0.0 — flat-noise recession
Bear Cr (ht)	2.36 @00:00	2.36 @00:00	2.26 @23:15	2.26 @22:15	+0.01 ft jitter — noise
Bear Cr (cfs)	37.1 @00:00	37.1 @00:00	28.5 @23:15	28.5 @22:15	none

(f) QPE-peak attribution: Today's basin QPE = 0.000" at every zone. There are no rainfall-response pairs to attribute today — no lag or transfer ratio can be computed. Every gauge max equals its first reading: all seven instruments are in pure recession from the Event 19 (Day 98–101) upper-basin flood pulse. No new timestamps to pair.

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1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: No measurable rain anywhere in the watershed. All 37 HUC12s reported 0.000" 24-hr QPE. This is the second consecutive dry day (D-1 basin-max was 0.004"). The Event 19 forcing ended Day 100; the basin has been rain-free for ~36+ hours.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: Every gauge fell monotonically — textbook recession. Daily falling magnitudes:

3. Boxley 3.22 → 2.87 ft (−0.35 ft), pool-drain seepage ~0.015 ft/hr — consistent with the documented ~4-day drain from the Day 100 study-record 5.50 ft peak.
4. Ponca 442 → 284 cfs (−158 cfs).
5. Pruitt 5.61 → 4.94 ft / 755 → 503 cfs.
6. St. Joe 6.67 → 5.72 ft / 2000 → 1270 cfs. Falling rate ≈32 cfs/hr (730 cfs / 22.75 hr).
7. Harriet 6.39 → 5.56 ft / 2540 → 1650 cfs. Falling rate ≈37 cfs/hr (890 cfs / 23.75 hr).
8. Richland 1.45 → 1.32 ft — back below its pre-Event-19 baseline, confirming the documented "very flashy, returns below pre-event within 3–4 days" character.
9. Bear Cr 2.36 → 2.26 ft / 37.1 → 28.5 cfs — flashy recession continuing; Bear sat out Event 19 entirely (only +0.06 ft), so this is pure baseflow decline.

No source attribution required — no rises occurred.

1. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None. Zero QPE basin-wide; no QPE-to-gauge pairing is possible today. Per the auto-computed context, today's micro-QPE is not a driver and no transfer ratio is computed. (Cross-event comparison is therefore N/A for today — there is no today-value to compare.)

2. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: No propagating rise. The Event 19 flood pulse has already passed each mainstem gauge (St. Joe peaked 7.63 ft Day 101 10:30; Harriet 6.67 ft Day 101 18:45). Today shows only the falling limb draining through the chain. St. Joe (~32 cfs/hr) and Harriet (~37 cfs/hr) are falling at near-identical absolute rates — consistent with the documented St. Joe↔Harriet convergence once the propagation pipeline empties (Days 95, 97 baseline analog). No velocity estimate is warranted on a recession-only day.

3. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Today is Day 4 of the Event 19 recession (peak forcing Day 100). The mainstem remains elevated but declining: St. Joe still 1270 cfs and Harriet 1650 cfs at day's end — both comfortably mid-Optimal for recreation (St. Joe Optimal 200–8000; Harriet 200–9370). Pruitt 4.95 ft / 507 cfs also solidly Optimal (200–2000). Ponca 284 cfs is at the low end of Optimal (200–1600). This confirms Event 19 delivered a multi-day Optimal window across the lower mainstem despite the flood pulse being upstream-only (the Event 19 attenuation finding: upper-basin flood → only ~30–36% of flood threshold at St. Joe/Harriet, but a sustained Optimal tail).

St. Joe recession placement: today's ~32 cfs/hr falling rate sits between the Event 8 wet canonical Day-1 (33 cfs/hr) and Day-2 (16 cfs/hr) values — appropriate for ~Day 1–2 of the fast interflow limb following the Day 101 peak.

1. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: None. This is a clean, unsurprising recession day — useful only as a "pipeline-draining" calibration point (analogous to Days 95/97 baselines, but at higher flow). One minor housekeeping note: Bear Cr cfs is now stepping down smoothly through the 28.5–37.1 range with no discrete table jumps today, suggesting the post-Event-15/16/17 rating revisions (Days 96, 100/101) have stabilized. The trivial end-of-day +0.02–0.03 ft upticks at Boxley/Bear/Pruitt are sub-noise on zero QPE and carry no signal.