Essentially dry day basin-wide. Maximum 24-hr zone total was richland 0.010" (Falling Water 0.011", Headwaters Richland 0.010"), with peak 1-hr 0.011" at 23:02 UTC (18:02 CDT). All other zones ≤0.009". No HUC12 exceeded 0.012". This is below detection threshold for any gauge response. The day is clean recession-only baseline #2 following Day 95.
All seven gauges in pure or near-pure recession from Event 17's residual baseflow drainage. Daily fall rates (00:00 → ~23:00):
| Gauge | Δ ft | Δ cfs | % fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | −0.03 ft | — | −1.5% |
| Ponca | — | −1.6 cfs | −1.7% |
| Pruitt | −0.11 ft | −27 cfs | −18% |
| St. Joe | −0.28 ft | −143 cfs | −18% |
| Harriet | −0.24 ft | −201 cfs | −18% |
| Richland | −0.11 ft | — | −7% |
| Bear Cr | −0.10 ft | −13.6 cfs | −20% |
End-of-day state: Boxley 1.95 ft; Ponca 91 cfs; Pruitt 3.80 ft / 126 cfs; St. Joe 4.66 ft / 646 cfs; Harriet 4.74 ft / 909 cfs; Richland 1.47 ft; Bear Cr 2.51 ft / 53.5 cfs.
Notable: Bear Cr discharge has dropped below the 60 cfs "too low" threshold (53.5 cfs). Pruitt is in low-but-floatable (126 cfs / 100–200 range). Ponca is in too-low territory (91 < 150). St. Joe and Harriet remain in optimal but trending toward low. Boxley at 1.95 ft is well below all recreational thresholds — neither Hailstone (3.7 ft) nor Boxley-Ponca section (3.2 ft) runnable.
None of significance. QPE today (max 0.011" zone-avg Richland) is well below detection threshold (~0.3–0.5" typically needed for clear response). The Pruitt +0.03 ft micro-pulse at 21:00 likely reflects diurnal noise / measurement quantization rather than rainfall response, since contributing-zone QPE was 0.002".
No new transfer-ratio or lag computations possible today.
No propagating signal. The basin is in clean recession from Event 17 plus baseflow from prior wet-period storage. St. Joe and Harriet are falling at near-identical absolute rates (~0.012 ft/hr each), consistent with the Day 95 finding that the propagation pipeline is empty and each gauge is draining its own zone baseflow.
This is Recession Baseline Day 2 in the post-Event-17 sequence. Combined Day 95 + Day 96 fall (where Day 95 was also clean recession; Day 96 had upper-basin convective leading edge that resolved overnight): - St. Joe: 5.34 ft / 1020 cfs (D95 end) → 4.66 ft / 646 cfs (D97 23:00) = −0.68 ft / −374 cfs over 48 hr - Harriet: 5.35 ft / 1450 cfs → 4.74 ft / 909 cfs = −0.61 ft / −541 cfs - Bear Cr: 2.82 ft / 88.7 cfs → 2.51 ft / 53.5 cfs = −0.31 ft / −35.2 cfs - Pruitt: 4.05 ft / 191 cfs → 3.80 ft / 126 cfs = −0.25 ft / −65 cfs
Bear Cr recession constant refinement: Using Day 94 peak (256 cfs @ 04:00) → today's 53.5 cfs @ 23:00 = ~91 hr, ln(256/53.5)/91 = k ≈ 0.0172/hr (e-folding ~58 hr). This is slower than the Day 94→95 rate (k ≈ 0.024/hr). Recession constants typically decrease as flow approaches baseflow — consistent with classic two-component recession behavior.
St. Joe recession constant (D95→D97): ln(1020/646)/47 hr = k ≈ 0.0097/hr (e-folding ~103 hr) at this flow regime. Harriet: ln(1450/909)/47 ≈ 0.0099/hr — essentially identical, again confirming each is on its own zone-baseflow drainage curve.
Nothing surprising. The day cleanly extends the Day 95 baseline observation: with watershed drying down post-Event 17, mainstem gauges are settling toward seasonal baseflow at coherent k ≈ 0.010/hr rates, while the flashier tributaries (Bear Cr) settle faster. The 7-day antecedent values continue to decline — Falling Water now 1.79" (was 4.45" on D-94, 4.87" on D-95, 1.79" today reflects the rolling-window dropoff as Event 17 ages past the 7-day mark).