Boxley (07055646) — height: - (a) First: 1.84 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.44 ft @ 23:30 - (c) Last: 2.44 ft @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 1.82 ft @ 07:00 (and 09:00) - (e) Low→peak rise: 1.82 → 2.44 = +0.62 ft over ~16.5 hr; still rising at end-of-day
Ponca (07055660) — discharge: - (a) First: 69.4 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 234 cfs @ 21:45 (and 23:30) - (c) Last: 234 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 69.4 cfs @ 00:00 (and intermittent through morning) - (e) Low→peak rise: 69.4 → 234 = +164.6 cfs over ~21.75 hr; still near peak at EOD
Pruitt (07055680) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 3.44 ft / 58.1 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.40 ft @ 23:30 / 290 cfs @ 23:30 - (c) Last: 4.40 ft / 290 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 3.41 ft @ 07:30 / 53.7 cfs @ 07:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.41 → 4.40 = +0.99 ft over 16 hr; 53.7 → 290 = +236 cfs over 16 hr; still rising sharply at EOD
St. Joe (07056000) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 3.47 ft / 195 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 3.64 ft @ 21:15 (also 22:45) / 245 cfs @ 21:15 / 22:45 - (c) Last: 3.64 ft / 245 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 3.45 ft @ 03:30 / 189 cfs @ 03:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.45 → 3.64 = +0.19 ft over ~17.75 hr; 189 → 245 = +56 cfs. Rise appears not yet fully through.
Harriet (07056700) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 3.68 ft / 237 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.32 ft @ 22:30/22:45 / 601 cfs @ 22:30/22:45 - (c) Last: 4.32 ft / 601 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 3.66 ft / 228 cfs @ 03:00–08:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.66 → 4.32 = +0.66 ft over ~13.5 hr; 228 → 601 = +373 cfs; still rising at EOD
Richland (07055875) — height: - (a) First: 1.22 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.20 ft @ 21:30 - (c) Last: 2.17 ft @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 1.18 ft @ 07:15 / 07:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 1.18 → 2.20 = +1.02 ft over ~14.25 hr; receding slightly at EOD
Bear Creek (07056515) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 2.06 ft / 12.4 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.12 ft @ 10:00/10:15 / 15.0 cfs @ 10:00/10:15 - (c) Last: 2.08 ft / 13.2 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 2.06 ft / 12.4 cfs @ 00:00–08:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 2.06 → 2.12 = +0.06 ft over ~10 hr; 12.4 → 15.0 = +2.6 cfs; minor pulse, already receding
Major watershed-wide event — first Tier-2/3 forcing in ~2 weeks. This is a substantial event that broke the dry spell. Convective/MCS activity centered ~14–17 CDT (per peak-1hr times) with broad spatial coverage.
Zone totals (24-hr): - Ungauged: 2.21" (1-hr peak 0.889" in Leatherwood 0508; max-6hr 2.572") - Pruitt: 1.93" (Hoskin 1.96", Cove 1.89") - Harriet: 1.76" (Water Creek 0508 2.09", Spring Cr 1.81") - St. Joe: 1.60" zone-avg (Cane Branch 0309 2.05", Lick Cr 1.93", Flatrock 1.99", Cave Cr 1.54", Big Cr complex 1.69–1.77") - Ponca: 1.52" (Beech 1.58", Whiteley 1.67", Smith 1.32") - Richland: 1.39" (Falling Water 0307: 1.47", Headwaters 0306: 1.31"; 1-hr peak 0.579") - Boxley: 1.16" (1-hr peak 0.54") - Bear Cr: 1.11" (Outlet 0404 1.30", Headwaters 0403 0.91") — relative spatial minimum
Spatial pattern: Broadly distributed but with heaviest accumulations along the lower-mainstem axis (Pruitt → St. Joe mainstem-misc → Harriet → ungauged). Notable that Pruitt zone (1.93") exceeded all upstream zones — first event in study where Pruitt-zone forcing dominated. Bear Cr again the spatial minimum (consistent with Day 77/79 pattern of weak Bear Cr forcing).
Antecedent (7-day going in): Very dry across the board. Boxley 0.18", Ponca ~0.10", Pruitt ~0.07", St. Joe ~0.25" avg, Richland 0.30", Bear Cr 0.24", Harriet 0.22". This is a DRY-antecedent event — comparable to Event 9 (May 5-7) baseline.
All seven gauges responded. Event in progress at EOD — most gauges still rising.
| Gauge | Pre | Current (EOD) | Rise | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.82 ft | 2.44 ft | +0.62 ft | rising |
| Ponca | 69.4 cfs | 234 cfs | +165 cfs | rising/plateau |
| Pruitt | 3.41 ft / 54 cfs | 4.40 ft / 290 cfs | +0.99 ft / +236 cfs | rising sharply |
| St. Joe | 3.45 ft / 189 cfs | 3.64 ft / 245 cfs | +0.19 ft / +56 cfs | rising slowly |
| Harriet | 3.66 ft / 228 cfs | 4.32 ft / 601 cfs | +0.66 ft / +373 cfs | rising |
| Richland | 1.18 ft | 2.20 ft (peak), 2.17 EOD | +1.02 ft | peaked ~21:30, falling |
| Bear Cr | 2.06 ft / 12.4 cfs | 2.08 ft / 13.2 cfs | +0.06 ft / +2.6 cfs (peak +0.06/+2.6) | already receded |
Signal-separation observations: - Richland rose strongly (+1.02 ft) → confirms Richland sub-basin (HUC12s 0306/0307) is contributing significantly to St. Joe. - Bear Cr barely responded (+0.06 ft peak) despite 1.11" zone QPE — striking. This validates that Bear Cr antecedent dryness (7d=0.24") absorbed most of the input. Harriet's large rise (+0.66 ft / +373 cfs) is therefore predominantly from St. Joe propagation + direct Harriet-zone QPE (1.76"), not from Bear Cr inflow. - The fact that Harriet has risen +373 cfs while St. Joe has only risen +56 cfs means Harriet's response is driven by direct Harriet-zone forcing, not propagation (St. Joe's propagation signal has not yet arrived). This is a clear case of bottom-up vs top-down forcing — the heavy Harriet-zone (1.76") and ungauged-adjacent QPE produced a fast direct-runoff signal at Harriet before any St. Joe pulse routed downstream.
Recreational threshold crossings: - Boxley 2.44 ft — still below 3.7 ft "Hailstone" floatable threshold, but rising fast. Worth watching overnight. - Pruitt 290 cfs — crossed into Low-Floatable (100–200) and is now in Optimal range (200–2000). First time at Pruitt in optimal since Event 10. - Ponca 234 cfs — in Optimal range (200–1600). - Harriet 601 cfs — in Optimal range (200–9370). - Richland 2.20 ft — below upper-Richland whitewater floatable threshold of 3.2 ft.
Important: Event is in progress — most lag/transfer estimates are partial and will need to be revised tomorrow when peaks complete.
Richland (peak captured at 21:30): - Richland-zone 1-hr peak QPE: 0.579" @ 17:02 UTC = 12:02 CDT (HUC12 0307) - Richland gauge peak: 2.20 ft @ 21:30 CDT - Lag (peak-to-peak): ~9.5 hr (dry antecedent) - Rise: +1.02 ft / 1.39" zone-avg = 0.73 ft/in transfer ratio - Comparison to prior: Event 10 (moist antecedent): 1.34 ft/in. Event 8 wet: 0.8–1.5 ft/in. Day 79 micro (dry): 0.16 ft/in. - Today's 0.73 ft/in is ~45% LOWER than Event 10's 1.34 ft/in — a >30% deviation. Attribution: dry antecedent dampening is the most likely cause. Richland 7-day was 0.30" today vs ~1.16" before Event 10. This is the first clean dry-antecedent moderate Richland data point. - Refined Richland transfer-ratio hypothesis: dry-antecedent ≈ 0.7–0.8 ft/in; moist-antecedent ≈ 1.0–1.5 ft/in. Confidence: moderate (one dry data point). - Lag comparison: Event 10 Richland lag was ~7.7 hr (flash, moist). Today's 9.5 hr is ~25% longer, consistent with dry-antecedent throttling at low intensity. Within expected range.
Pruitt (event in progress — not yet peaked): - Pruitt-zone 1-hr peak QPE: 0.662" @ 16:02 UTC = 11:02 CDT - Pruitt gauge: still rising at 4.40 ft / 290 cfs @ 23:30; trajectory steep (+0.23 ft in last hr). - Partial lag: at least 12.5 hr from peak QPE, with no peak yet. Will revise tomorrow. - Partial transfer: +0.99 ft / 1.93" = 0.51 ft/in (provisional, still rising). Discharge +236 cfs / 1.93" = 122 cfs/in (provisional). - Comparison: No prior clean Pruitt direct-forcing case in study (Event 10 Pruitt was propagation-dominated with low zone QPE 0.14"). Today is the first event with Pruitt-zone dominant forcing — anchor data point.
Harriet (event in progress): - Harriet-zone 1-hr peak QPE: 0.695" @ 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT (Spring Creek 0409) - Harriet gauge: still rising at 4.32 ft / 601 cfs @ 22:45. - Partial lag: 12.75 hr peak-QPE-to-current; not yet peaked. - Partial transfer: +0.66 ft / 1.76" = 0.375 ft/in (provisional); +373 cfs / 1.76" = 212 cfs/in (provisional). - Bear Cr is flat → Harriet rise is direct-forcing dominated, not Bear-Cr inflow. Strong validation of signal-separation logic.
Boxley (event in progress, dry-antecedent): - Boxley-zone 1-hr peak QPE: 0.539" @ 16:02 UTC = 11:02 CDT - Boxley gauge: still rising at 2.44 ft @ 23:30. First detectable response began ~10:15 CDT. - First-response lag from rain onset: Rain started around ~09:00 CDT, gauge first moved 10:15 — ~75 min onset-to-rise. - Partial transfer: +0.62 ft / 1.16" = 0.53 ft/in (provisional, still rising). - Comparison: Event 10 (moist): 0.67 ft/in. Dry events historically: 0.5–0.6. Today's provisional 0.53 ft/in is consistent with dry-antecedent range — but partial. - Local-knowledge cross-check: The "Pool and Drop" headwaters character predicts longer lag in dry conditions. Today's gauge first moved 75 min after rain onset, which is consistent with the "fill the pools first" hypothesis. Worth observing tomorrow's final peak timing.
Bear Creek (small response, dry-antecedent): - Bear-Cr-zone 24-hr QPE: 1.107" with 1-hr peak 0.317" @ 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT (Outlet 0404) - Bear Cr gauge: pulsed 2.06 → 2.12 ft (+0.06 ft) peaked ~10:00–10:15. - Lag (peak QPE to peak gauge): ~0 hr — essentially immediate, suggesting the small response is direct surface runoff from the near-gauge area (0404 Outlet) rather than integrated basin response. - Transfer ratio: 0.06 ft / 1.11" = 0.054 ft/in — extremely low. Consistent with very dry antecedent (7d=0.24") absorbing the majority of input. - This is a striking dry-antecedent observation: 1.1" of rain produced essentially no integrated basin response at Bear Creek. Bear Cr appears to have a higher detection threshold under dry conditions than the other gauges. Will refine after fuller event recession.
Mainstem cascade not yet resolved — event in progress. What can be said:
Critical observation: This event is not propagation-cascade dominated — every gauge zone received its own heavy direct forcing nearly simultaneously, so each gauge responded to its own zone independently. The classic "Boxley → Ponca → Pruitt → St. Joe → Harriet" downstream cascade is partially obscured. The Pruitt → St. Joe → Harriet propagation pulse will emerge later, layered on top of the direct-forcing signals, likely tomorrow (Day 81).
Real cascade resolution requires Day 80 data.
This is Event 11 of the study — a new event, not a continuation. The prior 7-day was minimal; today's QPE is the dominant signal. Event 11 begins Day 80. Will need 2-4 more days to resolve recession.
Bear Cr near-total non-response to 1.11" of rain. The most striking observation today. Suggests Bear Cr has a much higher dry-antecedent detection/threshold than other gauges, possibly due to greater soil moisture deficit, karst storage, or channel-loss processes in the Bear Cr basin. This is a real and useful finding — Bear Cr will likely require >1.5" zone QPE on dry antecedent to produce a meaningful (>0.2 ft) basin response. Worth confirming with subsequent events.
Direct-forcing dominance over propagation. Unlike Event 10 (Richland-tributary-driven at St. Joe), today every gauge zone got hit roughly simultaneously, producing parallel direct responses rather than a downstream cascade. This complicates classical propagation-velocity estimation but provides excellent direct-transfer-ratio anchor data for each gauge, especially Pruitt and Harriet which previously lacked clean direct-forcing data points.
Pruitt-zone forcing exceeded all upstream zones (1.93"). First time in study. Combined with Pruitt's already-very-low pre-event baseflow (54 cfs, near new study lows), this gives the cleanest possible Pruitt direct-forcing dataset of the study. Need Day 80 to capture peak.
Heavy ungauged-area QPE (2.21" zone-avg, max 2.92" Leatherwood). Belowtsthe Harriet gauge, so no direct gauge constraint — but operationally relevant for downstream Buffalo conditions.
Dry-antecedent transfer ratios coming in low consistent with Richland today (0.73 vs 1.34 ft/in moist). This is the cleanest dry-vs-moist comparison data the study has produced.