Boxley (07055646) height: - First: 3.00 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 3.00 ft @ 00:00 (pure recession from yesterday's 3.09 peak) - Last: 2.53 ft @ 23:30
Ponca (07055660) discharge: - First: 219 cfs @ 00:00 - Max: 342 cfs @ 01:45–02:15 - Last: 239 cfs @ 23:30
Pruitt (07055680) height: - First: 3.83 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 4.39 ft @ 14:00–15:30 - Last: 4.24 ft @ 23:30 - Discharge max: 287 cfs @ 14:00 (also 14:15, 14:30, 14:45, 15:00, 15:15, 15:30)
St. Joe (07056000) height: - First: 4.03 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 4.66 ft @ 12:30–12:45 - Last: 4.46 ft @ 22:45 - Discharge max: 646 cfs @ 12:30–12:45
Harriet (07056700) height: - First: 4.11 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 4.39 ft @ 22:45 (still rising) - Last: 4.39 ft @ 22:45 - Discharge max: 649 cfs @ 22:45 (still rising)
Richland Creek (07055875) height: - First: 2.87 ft @ 00:00 (in recession from yesterday's 3.24 peak) - Max: 2.87 ft @ 00:00 - Last: 2.21 ft @ 23:00
Bear Creek (07056515): - First height: 2.23 ft; Max: 2.23 ft; Last: 2.22 ft — essentially flat - Discharge: 21.0 cfs flat with minor noise to 19.8
Effectively zero rainfall today. All zones <0.04" 24-hr total. Richland zone 0.025" (peak 1-hr 0.037" in 0306), St. Joe 0.012", ungauged 0.011" (Clabber Cr 0.04"). All sub-detection. Today is a pure response-and-recession day from Event 10's rainfall yesterday (May 10).
Event 10 cascade completed today — first Tier 2 watershed-wide event captured end-to-end since Event 8.
| Gauge | Pre-event | Peak | Time | Rise | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.20 ft | 3.09 ft | D71 21:45 | +0.89 ft | Past peak, recession |
| Ponca | 178 cfs | 342 cfs | D72 01:45 | +164 cfs | Past peak, recession |
| Pruitt | 3.82 ft / 131 cfs | 4.39 ft / 287 cfs | D72 14:00 | +0.57 ft / +156 cfs | Past peak, recession |
| St. Joe | 4.01 ft / 364 cfs | 4.66 ft / 646 cfs | D72 12:30 | +0.65 ft / +282 cfs | Past peak, recession |
| Harriet | 4.12 ft / 473 cfs | 4.39 ft / 649 cfs | D72 22:45 (still rising) | +0.27+ ft / +176+ cfs | Still rising |
| Richland | 3.24 ft (D71) | 3.24 ft (D71 19:45) | — | (past peak) | Deep recession |
| Bear Creek | 2.22 ft / 21 cfs | flat | — | — | No response (0.33" sub-threshold) |
Key observations: - Pruitt's response was substantial (+0.57 ft) despite only 0.14" zone QPE. Mainstem propagation from Ponca dominated — not local rainfall. - St. Joe peaked BEFORE Pruitt (12:30 vs 14:00). This is anomalous for normal downstream propagation and indicates St. Joe's peak was driven primarily by Richland-tributary inflow (Richland peaked D71 19:45, ~17 hr earlier) rather than mainstem flow from Pruitt. - Harriet still climbing at end of day — peak will arrive D73.
Boxley (Event 10): Peak 1-hr QPE 0.667" @ D71 14:02 CDT (zone 0201). Peak gauge 3.09 ft @ D71 21:45. - Lag = ~7.7 hr (peak-to-peak). - Transfer = 0.89 ft / 1.32" = 0.67 ft/in. - Antecedent: 7-day 1.45" (moist). Prior wet Boxley transfers ran 0.5–0.9 ft/in range; today consistent. - Compare to Event 9 dry-antecedent Boxley: lag was longer (~10–12 hr expected pool-fill); today's 7.7 hr is faster, consistent with moist antecedent = pre-filled pools per local "pool-and-drop" knowledge.
Ponca (Event 10): Peak 1-hr QPE ~0.665" @ D71 14:02 (Beech/Smith). Peak discharge 342 cfs @ D72 01:45. - Lag = ~11.7 hr. - Transfer = 164 cfs / 0.97" = 169 cfs/in. - Antecedent: ~1.05" (moist). - Ponca crossed into Low-Floatable (>200 cfs) briefly. Peak 342 cfs is well within Optimal (>200) but a modest event.
Pruitt (Event 10): Direct QPE was only 0.14" — clearly response was propagated from Ponca, not local. Pruitt zone QPE was the spatial minimum. - Pruitt peak 4.39 ft @ D72 14:00 vs Ponca peak D72 01:45 = ~12.25 hr Ponca→Pruitt lag. - This is unusually long; historical Ponca→Pruitt has been faster (4–8 hr typical). The slow propagation is likely because the rise itself was modest and channel was low; flow had to refill the Pruitt pool/bedform first. Per local knowledge of the scoured right-channel at Pruitt, low-flow propagation could be artificially extended. - Transfer (per total Ponca event input): not directly comparable since Pruitt response is composite.
St. Joe (Event 10): Direct St. Joe-zone QPE 0.36" but coherent rise was driven by Richland inflow. - Richland peak D71 19:45 (3.24 ft) → St. Joe peak D72 12:30 = ~16.75 hr Richland→St. Joe lag. - Compare to Event 5 / March 2024 reference: Richland-to-St-Joe routing typically 8–12 hr at high flow. Today's 16.75 hr is slower, consistent with modest event magnitude (St. Joe peaked only 4.66 ft vs ~15 ft in 2024 reference). - St. Joe zone transfer: rise 0.65 ft on Richland 1.43" event basin-avg input ≈ 0.45 ft/in (St. Joe height per Richland-zone inch); cfs basis: 282 cfs / 1.43" ≈ 197 cfs/in. Antecedent St. Joe zone ~0.7" (moist).
Harriet (Event 10 in progress): No significant local QPE (0.28"). Rise is pure mainstem propagation from St. Joe. - St. Joe peak D72 12:30 → Harriet still rising at 22:45 (lag so far 10.25 hr, peak pending). Bear Creek flat → confirms mainstem propagation, not Bear-Cr-zone rain.
Mainstem cascade for Event 10: - Boxley peak: D71 21:45 - Ponca peak: D72 01:45 → Boxley→Ponca = 4.0 hr - Pruitt peak: D72 14:00 → Ponca→Pruitt = 12.25 hr (unusually long, see §3) - St. Joe peak: D72 12:30 → Pruitt→St. Joe = NEGATIVE (St. Joe peaked 1.5 hr before Pruitt). This confirms St. Joe peak was Richland-driven, not Pruitt-driven. Mainstem Pruitt input is still rising up the cascade and will reinforce St. Joe's recession floor. - Harriet peak: pending; St. Joe→Harriet lag >10.25 hr and counting.
Important: The St. Joe-before-Pruitt timing is the cleanest empirical demonstration this study has produced of Richland-tributary dominance over the mainstem signal at St. Joe, exactly as the signal-separation logic predicted. Worth flagging as a study highlight.
Event 10 is multi-day. Total event magnitude (Day 71 forcing + Day 72 response): - Boxley +0.89 ft / Ponca +164 cfs / Pruitt +0.57 ft / St. Joe +0.65 ft (282 cfs) / Harriet +0.27+ ft so far / Richland +1.91 ft (the largest absolute rise). - Richland transfer for Event 10: 1.91 ft / 1.43" zone-avg = 1.34 ft/in. Prior Richland transfers in wet/saturated conditions have ranged 0.8–1.5 ft/in; today is mid-range. Confidence improving. - Recreational note: Richland briefly entered "low but floatable" upper-Richland threshold (3.2 ft) at peak — exactly the 3-7 runs/year locals expect.