Daily Analysis

Day 64 of 90 — Continued dry recession, fourth consecutive zero-QPE day.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Zero QPE across all 37 HUC12s for the fourth straight day. 7-day antecedent has continued to decline: Boxley zone now 1.73" (down from 2.15" Day 62, 3.40" Day 60), Pruitt 1.01-1.37", St. Joe zones 1.25-2.14", Bear Cr 1.67-1.68", Harriet zones 1.30-1.99". The watershed is transitioning from "saturated" to "moderate" moisture state.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: All gauges in pure recession, no rises. End-of-day values:

3. Boxley: 2.43 ft (down 0.14 from yesterday)
4. Ponca: 231 cfs (down 30 cfs)
5. Pruitt: 227 cfs / 4.18 ft (down 51 cfs / 0.18 ft)
6. St. Joe: 671 cfs / 4.71 ft (down 180 cfs / 0.34 ft)
7. Harriet: 878 cfs / 4.70 ft (down 222 cfs / 0.27 ft)
8. Richland: 1.70 ft (down 0.17 ft) — now below pre-Event 8 baseline (1.85 ft)

9. Bear Cr: 36.2 cfs / 2.43 ft (down 9.1 cfs / 0.09 ft)

10. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None today.

11. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: N/A — uniform recession.

12. MULTI-DAY EVENTS — Event 8 recession, +120 hr post-peak update: Recession rate update for the late-late phase (Day 63 → 64, ~96-120 hr post-peak):

13. St. Joe: 829 → 671 cfs in 24 hr ≈ 6.6 cfs/hr. This is ~66% of the Day 62→63 rate (10 cfs/hr).
14. Harriet: 1100 → 878 cfs in 24 hr ≈ 9.3 cfs/hr. ~66% of prior day.
15. Bear Creek: 45.3 → 36.2 cfs. Now below pre-Event 8 baseline (45.3 was Day 60 starting; pre-event was 27.8). Still draining.
16. Pruitt: 278 → 227 cfs. Now below pre-Event 8 baseline (281 cfs). The recession has dropped through the baseline — this is now baseflow recession of the broader watershed, not just Event 8 drainage.
17. Richland: 1.87 → 1.70 ft. Also below pre-event baseline (1.85). Headwaters are drying.

Key finding: St. Joe (671 cfs) and Harriet (878 cfs) have now both dropped below their pre-Event 8 baselines (829 and 1030 cfs). Together with Pruitt and Richland also below baseline, this strongly confirms the Day 63 hypothesis retraction: the elevated saturated-floor was transient, and after ~5 days the watershed is now in a lower baseflow state than it was pre-event.

1. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES:
2. The geometric recession decay continues smoothly: St. Joe rates 33→16→10→6.6 cfs/hr across four 24-hour windows. Each phase ~50-66% of prior. Predictable.
3. All gauges below pre-Event 8 baseline by Day 64. This is the first time in the study we've seen a major event followed by a clean ~5-day dry-down to below pre-event baseflow. The watershed is now testably in "moderate-dry" antecedent, distinct from prior wet states. If a forcing event arrives in the next 1-2 weeks, it will provide the cleanest "moderate antecedent" data point of the study — useful for separating compound-wet amplification from baseline transfer.
4. No surprises or contradictions. Recession is textbook.