Daily Analysis

Day 62 — Pure Recession Day. No precipitation watershed-wide.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: All 37 HUC12s recorded 0.000" total in 24-hr. All gauge zones 0.0" total / peak / 6-hr. Complete dry day. 7-day antecedent totals essentially unchanged from yesterday (still reflecting Event 8: 2.5–3.4" across the watershed).

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: All gauges in clean recession from Event 8.

3. Boxley: 2.94 → 2.73 ft (−0.21 ft / 24 hr). Now well below 3.2 ft Boxley→Ponca low-floatable.
4. Ponca: 364 → 303 cfs (−61 cfs). Optimal but trending toward Low.
5. Pruitt: 449 → 347 cfs / 4.86 → 4.58 ft (−102 cfs / −0.28 ft). Mid-Optimal.
6. St. Joe: 1500 → 1120 cfs / 6.05 → 5.49 ft (−380 cfs / −0.56 ft). Optimal.
7. Harriet: 1940 → 1450 cfs / 5.84 → 5.35 ft (−490 cfs / −0.49 ft). Optimal.
8. Richland: 2.31 → 2.06 ft (−0.25 ft). Sub-floatable baseflow.

9. Bear Creek: 2.81 → 2.65 ft / 86.9 → 61.4 cfs.

10. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None — no rainfall.

11. MULTI-DAY EVENT (Event 8 recession, Day 4 post-peak): Cumulative recession from each peak:

12. St. Joe from 2260 cfs Day 60 00:30 → 1120 cfs Day 62 22:45 ≈ −1140 cfs / 70.25 hr ≈ 16.2 cfs/hr average. Recession is decelerating: Day 61 was ~33 cfs/hr; Day 62 averaged ~16 cfs/hr. The ~1100 cfs floor likely reflects elevated baseflow on saturated soils + slow Big Creek/Little Buffalo drainage.
13. Harriet from 2430 cfs Day 61 09:30 → 1450 cfs Day 62 22:45 ≈ −980 cfs / 61 hr ≈ 16 cfs/hr.
14. Pruitt from 893 cfs Day 60 10:15 → 347 cfs Day 62 22:45 ≈ −546 cfs / 60.5 hr ≈ 9 cfs/hr. Smaller absolute rate but a percent-recession of 61% in 60 hr — faster than St. Joe's 50% — consistent with smaller drainage flushing first.
15. Bear Creek from 558 cfs Day 59 02:30 → 61.4 cfs Day 62 23:15 ≈ −497 cfs / 93 hr, percent recession 89% — flashy karst tributary mostly drained.
16. Richland from 4.89 ft Day 59 21:45 → 2.06 ft Day 62 23:00 ≈ −2.83 ft / 73 hr ≈ 0.039 ft/hr average, dropping below pre-event 1.85 baseline only slowly. Now sub-floatable; total time above 3.2 ft was ~14 hr per Day 60 estimate, confirming local "rarely >24 hours" rule.

Boxley dropped to 2.73 ft — within ~0.16 ft of pre-Event-8 baseline (2.57 ft). Time above 3.7 ft Hailstone-low: ~32 hr (Day 59 ~21 CDT to Day 60 ~end-of-day to Day 61 ~05 CDT). This is longer than the local-knowledge "almost never more than 24 hours" rule. Worth flagging — Event 8 was a substantial multi-pulse event that produced longer Hailstone runnability than the local rule of thumb predicts. Still consistent with "2-4 times per year" for the Hailstone (Event 8 is one of 2 such opportunities so far in 62 days).

1. ANOMALIES / SURPRISES:
2. Hailstone duration overshoot (mild): Boxley above 3.7 ft for ~32 hr (Day 59 21:00 CDT to Day 61 ~05 CDT, accounting for the narrow dip back below) — exceeds the local "almost never more than 24 hours" guidance. This isn't a contradiction so much as a data point at the upper edge: heavy multi-pulse forcing on saturated antecedent extends the runnable window. Worth recording.
3. St. Joe recession deceleration: Day 62 rate (~16 cfs/hr) is half of Day 61 (~33 cfs/hr). Confirms two-phase recession (interflow → groundwater) is now firmly into the slow groundwater phase.