Daily Analysis

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Light overnight rain (Apr 26 ~05:00-06:00 UTC, ~midnight CDT) across the watershed, with notable concentration in the Richland Creek headwaters: - Falling Water Creek (HUC 0307): 0.292" / peak 0.164"/hr - Headwaters Richland (HUC 0306): 0.249" / peak 0.138"/hr - Bear Creek headwaters (HUC 0403): 0.204" - Outlet Big Creek/headwaters (HUC 0302): 0.178" - Boxley/Ponca zones: ~0.13-0.18" - Pruitt zone: only 0.038" (a near-miss) - Most other zones: 0.04-0.15"

Spatial pattern is southern-tier biased (Richland headwaters and Bear Creek headwaters), with the Pruitt zone notably skipped.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: Today is dominated by recession from Event 7, not new responses.

• St. Joe: Falling steadily from 5.81 ft / 1,330 cfs (00:00) to 5.31 ft / 1,000 cfs (22:45). ~0.50 ft / 330 cfs decline. Past peak — recession phase confirmed.
• Harriet: Peaked at 5.52 ft / 1,610 cfs at 02:00 CDT (matches the predicted "overnight Apr 25/26" peak from yesterday's hypothesis). Now falling — 5.15 ft / 1,260 cfs at 22:45. Total Event 7 rise: +1.55 ft / +1,225 cfs from 3.97 ft / 385 cfs baseline.
• Pruitt: Continued recession — 4.74 → 4.55 ft, 402 → 337 cfs. Brief small rebounds (+0.02 ft) late in day with the light rain.
• Boxley: Slight rebound from 2.73 to peak 2.81 ft (~10:30) on the 0.18" QPE, then resumed decline to 2.70 ft. Very small response (~+0.08 ft on 0.18" = 0.44 ft/in — but on already-falling stage, hard to isolate).
• Ponca: Mostly flat/slow recession, 211 → 197 cfs.
• Richland: Despite being the highest-QPE zone (0.27" zone average, 0.29" in Falling Water), only a small bump 2.10 → 2.15 ft (~+0.05 ft) midday before resumed recession to 1.99 ft. Very weak response to a substantial pulse.
• Bear Creek: Essentially flat, 2.42 → 2.36 ft, gentle recession (37→30 cfs). 0.20" on Headwaters Bear with Event 7 antecedent did NOT produce a visible bump.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS:

• Richland headwaters → Richland gauge: 0.27" zone QPE on wet antecedent (1.0-1.5" 7-day) produced only ~+0.05 ft net rise. Transfer ratio appears very low (~0.18 ft/in), but this is on top of recession masking — true storm response ratio is likely higher (~0.3-0.5 ft/in if accounting for continued underlying recession). Notably contradicts expectation: same magnitude of rain on dry antecedent in Event 7 (1.05" → +1.18 ft, 1.12 ft/in) was much more responsive. The small magnitude (0.27") is below the threshold for a clean response signature, even on wet ground.

• Bear Creek headwaters → Bear Creek gauge: 0.20" on wet antecedent (1.0+ 7-day): no detectable response. Confirms Bear Creek's elevated activation threshold even on wet antecedent — needs more than 0.2" to produce a response.

• Boxley zone → Boxley gauge: 0.18" zone QPE on wet antecedent (1.67" 7-day) → ~+0.08 ft from underlying recession trend. Transfer ratio ~0.4-0.5 ft/in — consistent with wet-antecedent enhancement vs. Event 7's 0.82 ft/in (but tiny signal, low confidence).

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: Event 7 propagation is now complete: - Boxley peak: 04/24 16:30 (3.21 ft) - Ponca peak: 04/24 18:15 (347 cfs) - Pruitt peak: 04/25 03:00 (612 cfs / 5.31 ft) — 21 hr from QPE centroid; ~10.5 hr after Boxley peak - St. Joe peak: 04/25 17:15 (1,460 cfs / 5.99 ft) — 35 hr; ~25 hr after Boxley - Harriet peak: 04/26 02:00 (1,610 cfs / 5.52 ft) — ~40 hr; ~33.5 hr after Boxley peak

Final Event 7 chain: Boxley→Pruitt 10.5h, Pruitt→St.Joe 14.25h, St.Joe→Harriet 8.75h. Very consistent with Event 4 propagation chain (compound event, similar flow magnitudes).

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Event 7 now COMPLETE. Final Harriet peak: 5.52 ft / 1,610 cfs. Total event magnitude: - Boxley +1.02 ft, Ponca +232 cfs, Pruitt +493 cfs / +1.54 ft, St. Joe +1,165 cfs / +2.15 ft, Harriet +1,225 cfs / +1.55 ft. - All gauges in Optimal recreational range through the entire post-peak period (Pruitt 4.55-5.31 ft = 337-612 cfs, well in Optimal; St. Joe 5.31-5.99 ft = 1,000-1,460 cfs Optimal; Harriet 5.15-5.52 ft = 1,260-1,610 cfs Optimal).

6. ANOMALIES / SURPRISES: - The Richland headwaters QPE (0.29" Falling Water) is the largest tributary-zone QPE today and produced only a marginal response. This re-emphasizes that 0.25-0.30" appears to be near the lower bound for clearly detectable Richland responses, even with wet antecedent. - The Pruitt zone got only 0.038" today — essentially a clean miss. This is good for clean recession analysis on the Pruitt gauge. - Harriet peak timing prediction (overnight Apr 25/26) was confirmed within hours — supports the ~40 hr lag estimate as robust for moderate-magnitude events.