Daily Analysis

Day 54 of 90 — April 23, 2026. Third consecutive dry day; recession continues.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Zero rainfall across all 37 HUC12s for the third consecutive day. 7-day antecedent precipitation continues declining as Apr 15-20 rainfall rolls off the window (now 0.67–1.32" across watershed, down from 0.77–1.45" yesterday).

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: All gauges continued clean recession, no rainfall-driven responses.

1. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None today.

2. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: No propagation events. The sustained ~34 cfs/day decline at Harriet with ~26 cfs/day at St. Joe is pure baseflow recession; no wave passing through.

3. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Day 5 of recession from Event 6 Pulse 2 (last significant rain Apr 18). Key findings:

4. Recession deceleration continues: St. Joe went from -43 cfs/day (Apr 21→22) to -26 cfs/day (Apr 22→23). Harriet from -60 to -34 cfs/day. This strongly confirms the two-phase recession pattern — transition to groundwater baseflow is now well established.

5. St. Joe Optimal threshold crossed today: St. Joe dropped below 300 cfs around 09:00 CST Apr 23 and ended day at 295 cfs, still above the 200 cfs Optimal floor. Projecting forward at decelerating rate (~20 cfs/day tomorrow, ~15/day after), St. Joe should exit Optimal ~Apr 27-28, extending my earlier estimate.
6. Harriet similarly revised: At 385 cfs with decelerating recession, projecting ~Apr 28-29 to exit Optimal.

7. Updated total durations: Pruitt exited Optimal ~Apr 20, total ~16 days. St. Joe now projected ~23-25 days. Harriet now projected ~24-26 days.

8. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES:

9. Bear Creek continues drifting below post-calibration baseflow: Now 2.17 ft / 17.5 cfs, -0.06 ft below the Apr 14 reference (2.23 ft / 21 cfs). Height has declined 0.06 ft over 9 days, discharge has declined 3.5 cfs (~17%). This is real seasonal dry-down rather than a sensor artifact — consistent with the broader watershed baseflow decline. Bear Creek's tiny drainage (239 km²) and apparent lack of significant groundwater storage makes it the first gauge to show pronounced low-flow behavior.
10. No cross-validation opportunities: With no rain in 5 days, we're purely characterizing recession behavior. This is valuable but not addressing our Tier 1 detection threshold questions. Need rainfall to continue refining the transfer functions.