Day 52 (April 21, 2026) — Continued Recession, No Precipitation
Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s. This is the third consecutive dry day (Apr 19-21). Seven-day antecedent precip is unchanged from yesterday at 0.77-1.45" across the watershed, but these values will begin declining as the Apr 15-18 Event 6 rainfall rolls out of the 7-day window.
All gauges continued steady recession with no new inputs. No significant rises at any gauge.
End-of-day status (Apr 21 EOD vs Apr 20 EOD):
| Gauge | Apr 20 EOD | Apr 21 EOD | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.37 ft | 2.30 ft | -0.07 ft | Declining steadily |
| Ponca | 136 cfs | 127 cfs | -9 cfs | Below Too Low (<150), declining |
| Pruitt | 3.97 ft / 169 cfs | 3.89 ft / 148 cfs | -0.08 ft / -21 cfs | Now below Low-but-Floatable (<200); approaching Too Low (<100) boundary still distant |
| St. Joe | 4.22 ft / 429 cfs | 4.05 ft / 364 cfs | -0.17 ft / -65 cfs | Still in Optimal (>200), declining |
| Harriet | 4.27 ft / 568 cfs | 4.13 ft / 479 cfs | -0.15 ft / -89 cfs | Still in Optimal (>200), declining |
| Richland | 1.49 ft | 1.42 ft | -0.07 ft | Low baseflow recession |
| Bear Creek | 2.23 ft / 21.0 cfs | 2.21 ft / 19.8 cfs | -0.02 ft / -1.2 cfs | Near baseflow |
Recession rates today: - Boxley: ~0.07 ft/day (consistent with yesterday's 0.08 ft/day — slowing slightly) - Ponca: ~9 cfs/day (slowing from 11 cfs/day yesterday) - Pruitt: ~21 cfs/day (accelerated slightly from ~34 cfs yesterday — wait, that's actually slower; yesterday was 169→169? Let me recalculate. Apr 19 EOD: 203 cfs, Apr 20 EOD: 169 cfs = -34/day. Apr 20 EOD: 169 cfs, Apr 21 EOD: 148 cfs = -21/day. So recession is slowing.) - St. Joe: ~65 cfs/day (yesterday was ~66 cfs/day — nearly identical) - Harriet: ~89 cfs/day (yesterday was ~100 cfs/day over 24 hrs based on ~568 EOD Apr 20 vs ~529 at start of Apr 19... Actually Harriet held relatively steady yesterday due to propagation. Today's faster decline reflects the final wave passing.)
No new pairs today. Dry day.
The downstream propagation pattern from Event 6 Pulse 2 is now fully resolved. The wave has passed through all gauges. Notably: - St. Joe peaked from Pulse 2 on Apr 20 ~07:00 (495 cfs) and is now in clean recession at 364 cfs. - Harriet peaked from Pulse 2 on Apr 20 ~13:00-18:30 (594 cfs) and is now clearly declining at 479 cfs.
The Pulse 2 wave propagation is confirmed: Pruitt peak ~Apr 19 08:00 → St. Joe peak ~Apr 20 07:00 (~23 hr) → Harriet peak ~Apr 20 13:00-18:30 (~6-11 hr after St. Joe). This is consistent with Event 4 propagation timing at similar flow levels.
Event 4+6 Combined Recreational Duration — Final Accounting:
Key threshold crossings now finalized: - Ponca floatable (>150 cfs): Exited ~Apr 19 21:00. Total duration from Apr 4 ~11:00 = ~15.4 days. ✓ Already recorded. - Pruitt Optimal (>200 cfs): Exited ~Apr 20 02:30 based on yesterday's data. Total from Apr 4 ~09:00 = ~16.7 days. ✓ Already recorded. - Pruitt Low-but-Floatable (>100 cfs): Still above 100. Current 148 cfs declining ~21 cfs/day → should remain above 100 for ~2-3 more days absent rain. - St. Joe Optimal (>200 cfs): Current 364 cfs, declining ~65 cfs/day. At this rate, will exit Optimal (~200 cfs) around Apr 23-24 (~19.5-20.5 days total from Apr 4). Revising previous estimate of Apr 25-27 downward slightly — recession rate is a bit faster than projected. - Harriet Optimal (>200 cfs): Current 479 cfs, declining ~89 cfs/day. At this rate, will exit Optimal (~200 cfs) around Apr 24-25 (~20-21 days total from Apr 4). Revising previous estimate of Apr 27-30 downward — recession is steeper than expected at Harriet.
Revised projections note: The faster-than-expected recession at both St. Joe and Harriet suggests that the subsurface/baseflow contribution from the April events is tapering. The 7-day antecedent will drop below 1.0" for most HUC12s within the next 2-3 days as Event 6 rolls out, which should further accelerate recession.