Day 45 (April 14, 2026) — No precipitation, continued recession from Event 4. Bear Creek discharge anomaly noted.
Zero precipitation across the entire watershed. All 37 HUC12s reported 0.000" for the 24-hour period. This is the second consecutive day of zero rainfall (Apr 13-14). The 7-day antecedent precipitation is unchanged from yesterday, ranging from 0.03" (Richland headwaters) to 1.1" (Water Creek in the Harriet zone — residual from Event 5).
All gauges continue declining with no new inputs. End-of-day values and daily changes:
| Gauge | EOD Apr 13 | EOD Apr 14 | Change | Daily Decline Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.26 ft | 2.19 ft | -0.07 ft | ~3.1% (height) |
| Ponca | 127 cfs | 120 cfs | -7 cfs | ~5.5% |
| Pruitt | 158 cfs / 3.93 ft | 138 cfs / 3.85 ft | -20 cfs / -0.08 ft | ~12.7% |
| St. Joe | 360 cfs / 4.04 ft | 324 cfs / 3.94 ft | -36 cfs / -0.10 ft | ~10.0% |
| Harriet | 485 cfs / 4.14 ft | 431 cfs / 4.05 ft | -54 cfs / -0.09 ft | ~11.1% |
| Richland | 1.35 ft | 1.29 ft | -0.06 ft | ~4.4% (height) |
| Bear Creek | 2.24 ft / 3.2 cfs | 2.23 ft / 21.0 cfs | -0.01 ft / +17.8 cfs | See anomaly |
Recreational status: - Ponca: 120 cfs — firmly in "Too Low" (<150 cfs). Below baseflow. - Pruitt: 138 cfs — now in "Too Low" (<100 cfs threshold is wrong — checking: actually Pruitt "Too Low" is <100, "Low but Floatable" is 100-200). Pruitt at 138 cfs is "Low but Floatable." Dropped below 150 during the day. - St. Joe: 324 cfs — in "Optimal" (200-8,000 cfs). Still comfortably above the floor. - Harriet: 431 cfs — in "Optimal" (200-9,370 cfs). Still comfortably above the floor.
None — no rainfall today.
No new rises to track. The recession continues uniformly across the watershed.
This is now Day 12 post-Event 4 peak (St. Joe peaked Apr 5 ~12:30 CST).
Updated recession rate tracking:
| Gauge | Day 11 Rate | Day 12 Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | ~3.4% | ~3.1% | Slow decline, approaching extreme baseflow |
| Ponca | ~6.6% | ~5.5% | Decelerating near baseflow |
| Pruitt | ~9.2% | ~12.7% | Slightly elevated — may reflect noisy data at low flows |
| St. Joe | ~12.0% | ~10.0% | Decelerating as expected |
| Harriet | ~8.3% | ~11.1% | Slightly higher than yesterday — noisy but broadly consistent |
Key observations: - Boxley at 2.19 ft is now well below its pre-Event 4 level of 1.84 ft... wait, 2.19 > 1.84, so Boxley is still 0.35 ft above its pre-Event 4 extreme-dry value but declining steadily. It's approaching the range seen before Event 1 baseline. - Ponca at 120 cfs has crossed below 127 cfs (yesterday's EOD) and is now 37% above its Event 4 pre-event value of 87.8 cfs. The decline is decelerating as it approaches seasonal baseflow. - St. Joe recession rate of ~10%/day on Day 12 continues the smooth deceleration trend: ~40% (Day 1) → ~14-15% (Days 7-9) → ~12% (Day 11) → ~10% (Day 12). This is consistent with a gradual transition from quick-flow to baseflow-dominated recession. - St. Joe projected Optimal duration: At 324 cfs and 10%/day declining, St. Joe needs to lose 124 cfs to reach 200 cfs floor. At 10%/day (decelerating): ~5-7 more days, so crossing 200 cfs around Apr 19-21. Revised projection: ~340-385 hours total Optimal duration (Apr 4 through ~Apr 19-21). - Harriet projected Optimal duration: At 431 cfs and ~11%/day (likely decelerating further), Harriet needs to lose 231 cfs to reach 200 cfs. Projected crossing around Apr 21-25. Revised projection: ~390-500 hours total.
Bear Creek discharge jump — likely a rating curve shift, NOT a real flow increase.
Bear Creek discharge jumped abruptly from ~3.2 cfs to ~21.0 cfs at approximately 15:30 CST on Apr 14. However: - Bear Creek height only declined by 0.01 ft (2.24 → 2.23 ft) during this same period — no rise whatsoever - Zero precipitation in the Bear Creek watershed - No rise at any other gauge in the watershed
This is almost certainly a USGS rating curve update. The field team likely visited Bear Creek, took measurements, and updated the rating table, causing the computed discharge to jump while the physical height reading remained unchanged. This is exactly the phenomenon described in the local knowledge about rating curve reliability: "CFS readings can lag reality significantly" and rating curves can shift when field teams recalibrate.
Implication: The prior Bear Creek discharge values (3.2-3.8 cfs over the past few days) were likely underestimating actual flow by roughly 6x. The "true" baseflow at Bear Creek at 2.23-2.24 ft is closer to 21 cfs, not 3 cfs. This retroactively affects confidence in Bear Creek CFS values from the entire study period. Height-based comparisons remain valid.
This is a clean, in-study example of the rating curve issue warned about in local knowledge. It validates the guidance to prefer height-based analysis for cross-gauge comparisons, especially during dry periods.