No precipitation today. Zero QPE recorded across all 37 HUC12s for the second consecutive day (Apr 5 and Apr 6). The 7-day antecedent remains elevated (1.4-2.8" across the watershed) from the Pulse 3 rainfall on Apr 4, but is now static — no new inputs.
All gauges are in recession from Event 4. No new rises detected. Summary of recession status at end of day (23:30 CST Apr 6):
| Gauge | Start of Day | End of Day | Daily Change | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 3.01 ft | 2.80 ft | -0.21 ft | Recession — below Boxley-Ponca floatable (3.2') |
| Ponca | 277 cfs | 224 cfs | -53 cfs (-19%) | Recession — still Optimal (>200), approaching Low-but-Floatable |
| Pruitt | 5.03 ft / 479 cfs | 4.64 ft / 367 cfs | -0.39 ft / -112 cfs (-23%) | Recession — well within Optimal |
| St. Joe | 6.74 ft / 2,020 cfs | 5.87 ft / 1,340 cfs | -0.87 ft / -680 cfs (-34%) | Recession — well within Optimal |
| Harriet | 6.43 ft / 2,580 cfs | 5.61 ft / 1,700 cfs | -0.82 ft / -880 cfs (-34%) | Recession — well within Optimal |
| Richland | 2.50 ft | 2.19 ft | -0.31 ft | Recession — below floatable (3.2') |
| Bear Creek | 2.89 ft / 46.4 cfs | 2.69 ft / 27.8 cfs | -0.20 ft / -18.6 cfs (-40%) | Recession |
Recession rate observations: - Upper watershed (Boxley, Ponca) receding slowly and steadily — these peaked 2 days ago and are well down the limb. - Pruitt is also well into recession, declining ~0.39 ft/day. The slight bump at ~20:00 CST (347→374 cfs) appears to be measurement noise, not a real rise — no QPE and no upstream signal supports it. - St. Joe declining ~0.87 ft/day — the fastest absolute recession among gauges, consistent with its large drainage area still processing the tail end of Event 4. Rate is ~0.04 ft/hr, quite uniform through the day. - Harriet declining ~0.82 ft/day. Note Harriet peaked ~19:15 CST Apr 5, so this is only its first full day of recession. The rate is accelerating slightly through the day (early: ~0.02 ft/hr, late: ~0.04 ft/hr). - Tributary gauges (Richland, Bear Creek) receding rapidly — both peaked on Apr 4 and are now 2+ days past peak.
No new rainfall-response pairs today. However, this clean recession day provides valuable data for characterizing recession curves:
Recession constants (approximate, from today's data): - Boxley: 0.21 ft/day at ~3.0 ft base → ~7%/day height recession rate - Ponca: 53 cfs/day at ~250 cfs mid-day → ~21%/day recession rate. Notably faster percentage-wise than headwaters. - Pruitt: 112 cfs/day at ~420 cfs mid-day → ~27%/day. Consistent with Ponca zone pattern. - St. Joe: 680 cfs/day at ~1,680 cfs mid-day → ~40%/day. The large drainage area with many tributaries means faster percentage recession once input stops. - Harriet: 880 cfs/day at ~2,140 cfs mid-day → ~41%/day. Similar to St. Joe, as expected. - Bear Creek: 18.6 cfs/day at ~37 cfs mid-day → ~50%/day. Small tributaries shed water fastest.
No new propagation to track. The Event 4 wave has fully passed all gauges. All gauges are now on the recession limb.
Final Event 4 propagation summary (now complete): - Harriet peak confirmed at ~19:15 CST Apr 5 at 6.55 ft / 2,720 cfs - Full propagation chain: Boxley peak (14:15 Apr 4) → Ponca peak (~16:00 Apr 4, +1.75 hr) → Pruitt peak (~00:15 Apr 5, +10 hr) → St. Joe peak (~12:30 Apr 5, +22.25 hr) → Harriet peak (~19:15 Apr 5, +29 hr) - Boxley-to-Harriet total propagation: ~29 hours
Event 4 recession tracking — Day 2 post-peak (lower gauges), Day 2.5 post-peak (upper gauges):
This is a clean, uninterrupted recession — excellent for calibrating recession models. With two consecutive dry days and all gauges falling monotonically, we can now establish baseline recession behavior for comparison with future events.
Recreational relevance: Despite two days of no rain, the watershed remains highly usable: - Ponca at 224 cfs — still Optimal (threshold 200), likely to drop below tomorrow - Pruitt at 367 cfs — solidly Optimal (threshold 200), likely to remain floatable for several more days - St. Joe at 1,340 cfs — well into Optimal range, will remain floatable for many days - Harriet at 1,700 cfs — well into Optimal, will remain floatable for many days
Local knowledge comparison: The Boxley-Ponca section (floatable at 3.2') — Boxley dropped below 3.2 ft at ~13:00 Apr 5, so the Boxley-Ponca section was floatable for approximately 27 hours (from ~10:00 Apr 4 when Boxley crossed 3.2 ft rising, to ~13:00 Apr 5 falling). This aligns well with local knowledge that this section "almost never stays runnable for more than 24 hours" — it was right at that boundary.
Richland Creek recreational window: Richland crossed above 3.2 ft (Low-but-Floatable per local knowledge) at approximately 10:00 CST Apr 4 and dropped below 3.2 ft at approximately 00:30 CST Apr 5 — a floatable window of approximately 14.5 hours. This is consistent with the local knowledge that "very rarely does it remain boatable for more than 24 hours." The previously estimated "~12 hours above 3.2 ft" in the hypothesis was close; refinement to ~14.5 hours based on closer time series inspection.
Pruitt bump at ~20:00 CST: Pruitt CFS jumped from 347 to 374 at 20:00, then held ~370 through end of day. No QPE, no upstream signal from Ponca (still declining). This is likely a rating curve artifact or minor measurement noise at Pruitt. Per local knowledge about Pruitt's channel scouring and gauge placement on river left, small discharge fluctuations at these moderate levels should be treated cautiously. Not flagging as a real hydrological signal.
St. Joe recession rate slowing: St. Joe's recession decelerated through the day — early morning ~40 cfs/hr decline, by evening ~10 cfs/hr. This flattening suggests baseflow contributions from the large St. Joe sub-watershed (1,342 km², 14 HUC12s) are sustaining flow as the event pulse drains. This is valuable for understanding the "long tail" that keeps St. Joe floatable for days after events.