Day 32 (April 1, 2026) — Continued Extended Drought, No Precipitation
Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s for the third consecutive day (Days 30-32). The 7-day antecedent precip values remain unchanged from Day 31 at 0.10-0.40" — but these values reflect only the March 27 trace event, which will begin rolling out of the 7-day window tomorrow (Day 33). By Day 33-34, effective 7-day precip will be 0.0" watershed-wide.
Days since last meaningful rain: 21 (Event 3 ended March 12; March 15 pulse was sub-threshold; March 27 was sub-threshold). Days since last measurable MRMS precipitation: 5 (March 27 trace).
All gauges continue slow baseflow recession. No significant rises detected.
| Gauge | Current Value | Change from Day 31 | Study Low? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.77 ft | -0.01 ft | Yes — new study low |
| Ponca | 82.4 cfs | -1.3 cfs | Yes — new study low |
| Pruitt | 3.45 ft / 48.2 cfs | -0.03 ft / -4.1 cfs | Approaching (low was 3.43 intraday) |
| St. Joe | 3.42 ft / 165 cfs | -0.03 ft / -10 cfs | Approaching (low was 3.39 intraday) |
| Harriet | 3.55 ft / 180 cfs | -0.02 ft / -9 cfs | Yes — new study low |
| Richland | 0.90 ft (but hit 0.85 intraday) | ~flat end-of-day | Yes — intraday low 0.85 ft is new study low |
| Bear Creek | 2.27-2.28 ft / 4.2-4.6 cfs | ~flat | Near study low |
Notable: Boxley has now been essentially flat at 1.77-1.78 ft for ~3 days, approaching what appears to be a hard baseflow floor for this gauge. Ponca likewise appears to be asymptoting near 82-84 cfs. These may represent true bedrock/spring-fed baseflow minimums for the upper watershed.
Richland Creek anomaly: The Richland gauge dropped to 0.85 ft at 12:15 CST then jumped to 0.90 ft by 12:45 CST — a 0.05 ft spike in 30 minutes with no precipitation anywhere in the watershed. This is consistent with the previously documented karst spike behavior at this gauge (noise floor ~±0.05 ft). The jump may represent a karst conduit pulse or sensor artifact. Not hydrologically meaningful.
St. Joe intraday noise increasing: St. Joe height ranged 3.39-3.48 ft today (0.09 ft range) despite zero rain. The corresponding CFS range was 156-184 cfs. This increasing variability at low flow is consistent with the local knowledge about rating curve unreliability at low flows and the channel scouring issue. The 3.39 ft reading at 21:30 CST represents a new study low for height, while the 156 cfs at the same time is a new study low for discharge.
None — no precipitation.
No events to track.
None active. The extended drought recession continues.
Recession rate analysis update: The recession is clearly entering a very slow "deep baseflow" phase. Comparing Day 30→32:
- Ponca: 86→82 cfs over 2 days = ~2.3%/day (~0.1%/hr)
- Pruitt: 55→48 cfs over 2 days = ~6.5%/day (~0.3%/hr)
- St. Joe: 179→165 cfs over 2 days = ~4.0%/day (~0.17%/hr)
- Harriet: 197→180 cfs over 2 days = ~4.3%/day (~0.18%/hr)
Ponca is approaching an asymptotic floor much faster than the other gauges, suggesting the upper watershed's spring-fed baseflow component is a larger fraction of total flow at Ponca than at downstream gauges. The downstream gauges still have some interflow/slow drainage contributing, producing slightly faster recession rates.
Recreational status: All mainstem gauges are firmly in "Too Low" territory except St. Joe (165 cfs — Low but Floatable, threshold 200 for Optimal) and Harriet (180 cfs — Low but Floatable, threshold 200 for Optimal). Both are declining and will likely drop below 'Low but Floatable' at St. Joe (threshold 40 cfs is very far away) within several more days if no rain arrives. Actually, checking thresholds: St. Joe Low-but-Floatable is 40-200 cfs, so 165 cfs is still in that range. Harriet Low-but-Floatable is 60-200 cfs, so 180 cfs is still in range. These sections remain marginally floatable.
Local knowledge comparison: The observation about pools needing to "fill" above Boxley before water reaches the gauge is especially relevant at this extreme baseflow state. When rain finally arrives, the Boxley response time will likely be the longest we've observed in the study. The pool-and-drop morphology means the first ~0.5" or more of rainfall may be entirely consumed by refilling depleted pools, producing no gauge response whatsoever.