Day 30 of 90 — 2026-03-30
Zero precipitation across the entire watershed. All 37 HUC12s show 0.0" for the 24-hour period. This is the 3rd consecutive day with zero precipitation (Days 28-30), extending the dry spell to 22 days since the last meaningful rain (March 8 Event 2 aftermath), with only the trace event on Day 27 (March 27, 0.1-0.4") breaking what is otherwise a continuous drought.
The 7-day antecedent precipitation remains unchanged from Days 28-29 (range 0.098-0.402" across HUC12s), reflecting only the Day 27 trace rain. The Day 27 rain will roll out of the 7-day window tomorrow (Day 31), at which point 7-day precip will drop to 0.0" across the entire watershed.
All gauges continued declining. No significant rises detected at any gauge. Summary of current conditions vs. Day 29:
| Gauge | Day 29 End | Day 30 End | Change | Recreational Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.82 ft | 1.80 ft | -0.02 ft | New study low — Too Low |
| Ponca | 87.8 cfs | 85.1 cfs | -2.7 cfs | New study low — Too Low (<150) |
| Pruitt | 3.52 ft / 58.1 cfs | 3.50 ft / 55.1 cfs | -0.02 ft | Too Low (CFS unreliable) |
| St. Joe | 3.52 ft / 195 cfs | 3.46 ft / 179 cfs | -0.06 ft / -16 cfs | Dropped below Low-but-Floatable (<200) → Too Low |
| Harriet | 3.62 ft / 210 cfs | 3.59 ft / 197 cfs | -0.03 ft / -13 cfs | Dropped below Optimal (200) → Low-but-Floatable |
| Richland | 0.92 ft | 0.90 ft | -0.02 ft | New study low |
| Bear Creek | 2.28 ft / 4.6 cfs | 2.28 ft / 4.6 cfs | ~0 | At/near study low (height touched 2.27 ft) |
Key threshold crossing: St. Joe has now dropped below the "Low but Floatable" threshold of 200 cfs, reading 175-179 cfs by end of day. This is the first time in the study that St. Joe has been in "Too Low" classification. Harriet has dropped from Optimal into Low-but-Floatable territory (197 cfs, just below the 200 cfs threshold).
Ponca baseflow floor update: Ponca dropped from 87.8 to 85.1 cfs today — a decline of 2.7 cfs (3.1%). My Day 29 estimate of a floor at ~85-87 cfs appears to be very close. The rate of decline has slowed further: - Day 28→29: 89.2 → 87.8 = -1.4 cfs/day (~1.6%/day) - Day 29→30: 87.8 → 85.1 = -2.7 cfs/day (~3.1%/day)
The apparent acceleration is misleading — Ponca held at 87.8 for most of Day 29 and then the reading resolution stepped down to 85.1 late on Day 30. This is likely a rating curve discretization artifact at very low flows. The true floor may be at or very near 85 cfs. I'll watch for further decline tomorrow.
St. Joe recession rate: From Day 29 average (~195 cfs) to Day 30 average (~185 cfs), the decline is approximately 5.1%/day, consistent with the ~5.8%/day rate estimated previously.
Harriet recession rate: From Day 29 (~210 cfs) to Day 30 (~201 cfs average), decline is approximately 4.3%/day, consistent with the ~4.1%/day rate.
None — no precipitation.
No propagation events to track.
Extended drought continues. Now 22 days since last significant precipitation. The entire watershed is in deep baseflow recession.
Richland Creek karst noise: Richland showed an unusual spike pattern today — from a declining trend around 0.90-0.91 ft, it spiked briefly to 0.93-0.94 ft at 15:00-15:15 and again at 19:15 (0.94 ft). These ±0.03 ft spikes with zero precipitation reinforce the previously documented karst noise floor at this gauge. The 0.03 ft/hr "rise" flagged at 15:15 is entirely within the karst noise envelope and should not be interpreted as a hydrological response.
Pruitt CFS scatter worsening: Pruitt CFS ranged from 49.5-59.6 today at heights of 3.46-3.53 ft. The Ponca-to-Pruitt discrepancy is now extreme: Ponca at 85.1 cfs while Pruitt reads 49.5-55.1 cfs. This confirms local knowledge about channel scouring shifting flow away from the gauge. Pruitt CFS values below ~80 cfs are essentially non-informational for absolute discharge.
Bear Creek approaching new low: Bear Creek CFS dropped to 4.19 cfs (from 4.59) in the late afternoon/evening, a new study low. Height touched 2.27 ft, also a new low. This gauge is approaching its spring-fed baseflow floor.