Day 28 (2026-03-28) — Continued drought recession, no precipitation
Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s today. This is the second consecutive dry day following yesterday's light rain (0.1-0.4" watershed-wide). The 7-day antecedent precip now reflects only yesterday's light amounts, ranging from 0.098" (Clabber Creek) to 0.402" (Flatrock Creek). The drought that began March 9 was barely interrupted — yesterday's rain was insufficient to recharge soil moisture, and conditions remain extremely dry.
All gauges continued declining to new study lows. No significant rises detected at any gauge.
| Gauge | Start of Day | End of Day | Change | New Study Low? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.88 ft | 1.84 ft | -0.04 ft | Yes (previous: 1.88 on 3/27) |
| Ponca | 94.9 cfs | 89.2 cfs | -5.7 cfs (-6%) | Yes (previous: 93.5 on 3/27) |
| Pruitt | 3.62 ft / 74.0 cfs | 3.55 ft / 62.6 cfs | -0.07 ft / -11.4 cfs (-15%) | Yes (previous: 3.59/69.0 on 3/27) |
| St. Joe | 3.59 ft / 216 cfs | 3.56 ft / 207 cfs | -0.03 ft / -9 cfs (-4%) | Approaching (3.53 ft touched intraday) |
| Harriet | 3.70 ft / 246 cfs | 3.64 ft / 219 cfs | -0.06 ft / -27 cfs (-11%) | Yes (previous: 3.68/237 on 3/27) |
| Richland | 0.98 ft | 0.94 ft | -0.04 ft | Yes (previous: 0.97 on 3/27) |
| Bear Creek | 2.30 ft / 5.5 cfs | 2.29 ft / 5.0 cfs | -0.01 ft / -0.5 cfs | Yes (previous: 2.30/5.5 on 3/27) |
Notable observations:
Pruitt showed an interesting intraday pattern: declined steadily from 3.62 ft to a low of 3.53 ft around 18:15-19:15 CST, then rebounded slightly to 3.55-3.57 ft by end of day. This ~0.02 ft late-day uptick is within noise range but could represent a minor diurnal signal or delayed subsurface drainage from yesterday's light rain. The rebound is too small and too noisy to be definitive.
St. Joe touched 3.53 ft at 22:00 CST (198 cfs) — this is approaching the "Low but Floatable" threshold (200 cfs). The gauge is now flickering near that boundary. At 198-207 cfs it's technically right at the threshold.
Harriet showed a more distinct step-down pattern: held at 3.67 ft through ~10:00, then gradually declined to 3.65 ft by ~18:30, and then to 3.64 ft by end of day. The 3.64 ft / 219 cfs at end of day is a new study low.
Bear Creek height dropped to 2.28 ft at one point (17:00) — a new absolute low. Discharge touched 4.59 cfs (also new study low).
No rainfall today; no pairs to evaluate.
Confirmation of March 27 non-detection: Today's continued decline at all gauges with zero QPE confirms that yesterday's 0.1-0.4" rain produced absolutely no delayed runoff response. Even 24+ hours later, there is zero evidence of any lagged contribution from yesterday's precipitation. This strengthens the extreme-dry detection threshold estimates.
No rises to track. The extended recession continues uniformly across all gauges.
Extended recession analysis — now Day 17 post-Event 3, Day 21 since last significant rain:
The recession continues uninterrupted. Tracking the ultra-slow "baseflow" recession phase:
| Gauge | 3/26 value | 3/28 value | 2-day decline | Rate (%/day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponca | ~98 cfs | ~89 cfs | -9 cfs | ~4.6%/day |
| Pruitt | ~81 cfs | ~63 cfs | -18 cfs | ~11%/day |
| St. Joe | ~230 cfs | ~207 cfs | -23 cfs | ~5%/day |
| Harriet | ~260 cfs | ~219 cfs | -41 cfs | ~7.9%/day |
The Pruitt recession rate (11%/day) is notably faster than the other mainstem gauges. This is consistent with the local knowledge about channel scouring near the Pruitt gauge — at these very low flows, the measurement may be affected by flow preferentially moving through river-right channels away from the gauge on river-left. The actual flow loss between Ponca (89 cfs) and Pruitt (63 cfs) — a 29% decrease — is hydrologically implausible for a gaining reach and strongly supports the local knowledge about gauge measurement issues at low flow.
Recreational status: - Boxley: 1.84 ft — well below any floatable threshold (needs 3.2 ft for Boxley-Ponca section per local knowledge) - Ponca: 89 cfs — Too Low (<150 cfs) - Pruitt: ~63 cfs — Too Low (<100 cfs) - St. Joe: ~207 cfs — Optimal but barely (threshold: 200 cfs), flickering at boundary - Harriet: ~219 cfs — Optimal (threshold: 200 cfs) but declining
Ponca-Pruitt discharge anomaly intensifying: The Ponca→Pruitt CFS relationship continues to diverge in ways that support local knowledge about gauge measurement issues. Ponca at 89 cfs and Pruitt at 63 cfs implies a 29% loss between the two gauges — this reach receives Cove Creek and Hoskin Creek tributaries (123 km² additional drainage), so it should be a gaining reach. This anomaly was noted in local knowledge: "scouring of the channel of the river near the physical location of the Pruitt Gauge... more flow at lower levels is on river right, as opposed to river left, where the gauge is located." At higher flows this won't matter, but at these extreme lows, the Pruitt CFS values should be treated with very low confidence for absolute magnitude. Height comparisons remain reliable.
St. Joe approaching critical recreation threshold: St. Joe is now flickering at the 200 cfs "Low but Floatable" / "Optimal" boundary. If the recession continues at the current rate (~5%/day), it will drop below 200 cfs within 1-2 days and could approach the 40 cfs "Too Low" threshold within 2-3 weeks if no significant rain occurs.